The Brigham Young Cougars will play one final regular season game at Hawaii on December 3 and will play in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forced Bowl on December 30 against a Conference USA opponent. If the Cougars win both games, they will finish the year with a 10-3 record.
Even with a current record of 8-3, BYU received zero votes in the most recent Associated Press (AP) Top 25. Seeing BYU completely shut out in the voting process, leads to the question: Will 10 wins be enough for BYU to finish 2011 nationally ranked?
If it were to happen, it would be the first time a 10 win BYU team did not finish ranked. In 1989, the 10-3 Cougars finished ranked numbers 18 and 22 by the UPI (Coaches) and AP polls, respectively. One year later, BYU was 10-3 again and ranked 17 and 22 by the Coaches and AP polls, respectively. In 1994, the 10-3 BYU team landed at spots 10 and 18 in the Coaches and AP polls. After that, it wasn’t until 2008 that BYU had another 10 win team. That year, BYU was ranked 21 by the Coaches and 25 by the media.
History clearly shows that the coaches, traditionally, rank BYU higher than the media. If BYU finishes 10-3 this year, the Coaches will have the BYU Cougars in their final poll. The most recent USA Today (Coaches) poll supports this claim. BYU did receive 21 points, which puts the Cougars at number 30, but still a long way from cracking the top 25 (number 25 Virginia had 154 points).
Back to the AP poll.
There are currently five teams with three losses in the AP Top 25. All five of these teams have beaten at least one team that is also in the Top 25. Four of the five teams have lost two games to other ranked teams. All BYU can “boast” is a competitive loss to #19 TCU. BYU has no wins against ranked opponents, or opponents who were ranked when the game was played.
Two events, or series of events, will have to happen for BYU to find its way into the final Top 25. The first has already been mentioned: win. Beat Hawaii and win the bowl game, and the bigger the margin of victory the better. It also helps that both games will be on ESPN, and that the volume of games played each day is low (only 19 games on December 3, and zero other bowls played at the same time as the Armed Forces Bowl).
The second series of events is for the right teams to lose. Three of the three-loss teams will probably lose this weekend. Georgia Tech plays Georgia, Notre Dame faces Stanford, and Virginia travels to Virginia Tech. Tulsa, Auburn, and Southern Mississippi are “Others receiving votes” who will probably lose as well, not to mention BYU could face either Tulsa or So. Miss in the bowl game. A lot of football remains to be played, and enough teams on the cusp will lose to give BYU an avenue to enter the rankings.
Historically, teams with a 10-3 record can finish ranked in the top 10 (Alabama, 2010). There are a few, however, who have been left out of the Top 25 entirely. Most recently, Utah wasn’t ranked in 2010 after an ugly bowl loss. Rice (2008) and Middle Tennessee State (2009) both won their bowl games to reach 10-3, but couldn’t garner enough votes. Northern Illinois even had 11 wins to 3 losses and won their bowl game in 2010, but it wasn’t enough to finish ranked.
BYU has had more past and recent success than Rice, Middle Tennessee State, and Northern Illinois. BYU also hasn’t played a MAC or Sun Belt Conference schedule. BYU would also finish 2011 with four consecutive wins, as opposed to four shaky games, including two losses, like Utah did in 2010.
The real deciding factor will be how good BYU looks in these last two games. If BYU beats both Hawaii and the bowl opponent convincingly, then the Cougars will earn their fifth national ranking in six years. If BYU squeaks out wins, then it will be a second consecutive year without being ranked in the AP poll.
The Editor appreciates all feedback. He can be reached via email at bluecougarfootball@gmail.com
Even with a current record of 8-3, BYU received zero votes in the most recent Associated Press (AP) Top 25. Seeing BYU completely shut out in the voting process, leads to the question: Will 10 wins be enough for BYU to finish 2011 nationally ranked?
If it were to happen, it would be the first time a 10 win BYU team did not finish ranked. In 1989, the 10-3 Cougars finished ranked numbers 18 and 22 by the UPI (Coaches) and AP polls, respectively. One year later, BYU was 10-3 again and ranked 17 and 22 by the Coaches and AP polls, respectively. In 1994, the 10-3 BYU team landed at spots 10 and 18 in the Coaches and AP polls. After that, it wasn’t until 2008 that BYU had another 10 win team. That year, BYU was ranked 21 by the Coaches and 25 by the media.
History clearly shows that the coaches, traditionally, rank BYU higher than the media. If BYU finishes 10-3 this year, the Coaches will have the BYU Cougars in their final poll. The most recent USA Today (Coaches) poll supports this claim. BYU did receive 21 points, which puts the Cougars at number 30, but still a long way from cracking the top 25 (number 25 Virginia had 154 points).
Back to the AP poll.
There are currently five teams with three losses in the AP Top 25. All five of these teams have beaten at least one team that is also in the Top 25. Four of the five teams have lost two games to other ranked teams. All BYU can “boast” is a competitive loss to #19 TCU. BYU has no wins against ranked opponents, or opponents who were ranked when the game was played.
Two events, or series of events, will have to happen for BYU to find its way into the final Top 25. The first has already been mentioned: win. Beat Hawaii and win the bowl game, and the bigger the margin of victory the better. It also helps that both games will be on ESPN, and that the volume of games played each day is low (only 19 games on December 3, and zero other bowls played at the same time as the Armed Forces Bowl).
The second series of events is for the right teams to lose. Three of the three-loss teams will probably lose this weekend. Georgia Tech plays Georgia, Notre Dame faces Stanford, and Virginia travels to Virginia Tech. Tulsa, Auburn, and Southern Mississippi are “Others receiving votes” who will probably lose as well, not to mention BYU could face either Tulsa or So. Miss in the bowl game. A lot of football remains to be played, and enough teams on the cusp will lose to give BYU an avenue to enter the rankings.
Historically, teams with a 10-3 record can finish ranked in the top 10 (Alabama, 2010). There are a few, however, who have been left out of the Top 25 entirely. Most recently, Utah wasn’t ranked in 2010 after an ugly bowl loss. Rice (2008) and Middle Tennessee State (2009) both won their bowl games to reach 10-3, but couldn’t garner enough votes. Northern Illinois even had 11 wins to 3 losses and won their bowl game in 2010, but it wasn’t enough to finish ranked.
BYU has had more past and recent success than Rice, Middle Tennessee State, and Northern Illinois. BYU also hasn’t played a MAC or Sun Belt Conference schedule. BYU would also finish 2011 with four consecutive wins, as opposed to four shaky games, including two losses, like Utah did in 2010.
The real deciding factor will be how good BYU looks in these last two games. If BYU beats both Hawaii and the bowl opponent convincingly, then the Cougars will earn their fifth national ranking in six years. If BYU squeaks out wins, then it will be a second consecutive year without being ranked in the AP poll.
The Editor appreciates all feedback. He can be reached via email at bluecougarfootball@gmail.com
The weak schedule could keep them out of the Top 25, even though they have won those games by a decent margin.
ReplyDeleteI think it all boils down to how well respected BYU is nationally. In the past, BYU has been respected enough to get a national ranking with 10 wins, regardless of the schedule.
ReplyDeleteHow sad will it be if BYU's stock has dropped to the level of Rice, MTSU, and Northern Illinois.