How much will BYU get out of Dylan Collie in just one year?

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Dylan Collie is contiuing the family legacy of wearing the Cougar blue (Photo courtesy LDSLiving.com)


Most people were excited by the news last week that Dylan Collie was returning to Provo to play one year of football for the BYU Cougars.

After learning of his decision, it was natural to question: How much production will BYU get from Dylan Collie in 2018? As this site likes to do, Blue Cougar Football put the question in front of site visitors and Twitter followers to get their opinion. The official results are below.
Official Results
25% 0-500
54% 501-700
14% 701-999
7% 1,000 yards or more
There are a lot of factors to consider when projecting a wide receiver's production. It isn't the players with the most yards, most receptions, or most touchdowns being drafted first by the NFL each year. Style of offense as well as quality and/or experience of a quarterback can either inflate or suppress a player's stats. To provide a little context, let's look at three sets of stats.

First, Collie's number while playing at Hawai'i.

2015: 29 rec., 342 yards, 1 TD
2016: 33 rec., 322 yards, 4 TD
2017: 56 rec., 636 yards, 4 TD

Second, the numbers for BYU's wide receivers last year.

Aleva Hifo: 37 rec., 437 yards, 2 TD
Micah Simon: 27 rec., 386 yards, 3 TD
Talon Shumway: 25 rec., 257 yards

Third, the best season for each previous Collie.

Scott Collie, 1981: 26 rec., 404 yards, 3 TD
Zac Collie, 2006: 26 rec., 437 yards, 2 TD
Austin Collie, 2008: 106 rec., 1,538 yards, 15 TD

After looking at these sets of numbers, new questions arise.
  1. Why was Dylan so much more productive with Hawai'i in 2017, and can BYU expect that Collie or the 2015-16 one?
  2. Does BYU have the offense and the quarterback to allow Collie to put up better numbers than Hifo, Simon, and Shumway in 2017?
  3. Where does Dylan fit on the Collie spectrum? 

Collie's Hawai'i Stats 
There were a couple of factors at play in 2015 and 2016 that kept Collie's production around half of what it was last year. First, he was a freshman just home from a two-year church mission in 2015. Second, Hawai'i had a terrible passing game that season. It was equivalent to BYU's passing attack from last year. The Warriors' leading receiver was Marcus Kemp with 563 yards. Kemp is the third reason why Collie's numbers were down. In 2016, he was the go-to receiver with 1,100 yards. He now plays for the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL.

Even as an underclassman, Collie was still a top three receiver for Hawai'i each season. That is a good sign. It is also a good sign that when he had gained experience and had an opportunity to step into a bigger role with the team, his production went up significantly; it essentially doubled.

He may be a little undersized, think Mitchell Juergens, but he has the attitude and skill set to still be productive on the FBS level of college football.

The BYU Offense 
After watching last season and looking at BYU's quarterback situation going into 2018, the limiting factor on Collie's production might not be his size or talent level. It could be the offensive system and the players around him. It isn't clear, yet, whether offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes is going to try and be run first, or pass first. Honestly, that really depends on the players and how well they can execute those two phases of the offense.

It is probably fair to say with his experience and knowledge of the position, Collie is probably BYU's best receiver. Regardless of who wins the quarterback battle, Collie will likely become one of his favorite targets, quickly, but what level of production will that translate to? More than Hifo, or even tight end Matt Bushman (520 yards)? It will really depend on how good the quarterback is.

Post Max Hall (eight seasons), BYU has had three seasons without a receiver totaling 600 yards receiving, but for the sake of the poll responses, the leading receiver did have at least 500 yards. Only twice (2014 and 2015) has BYU had more than one player have more than 500 yards receiving. This attests to the importance of how strong quarterback play is reflected in receiving stats. In the five years of John Beck and Max Hall, BYU had three 500-yard receivers in 2006, 2007, and 2008, and two the other two seasons.

The Collie Family Spectrum 
There is a very noticeable gap between the best seasons of father Scott and eldest brother Zac and Austin. In fact, Austin's "worst" season was far better than 400 yards (771). Austin was clearly on another level than anybody, not just the rest of his family. For those who remember him, it can be easy to get excited and have unrealistic expectations that Dylan will come in and do the same.

Does that mean we should just pencil Dylan in for 400 yards, like father and brother? No. He just had a 600 yard season with Hawai'i, so it is very unfair to say he can't do much more than 400 yards at BYU. Dylan will fall somewhere on the spectrum between 400 and 1,500.

Jordan Leslie came to BYU as a graduate transfer in 2014. His final two years at UTEP, he had 973 and 612 yards, respectively. In his one season as a Cougar, Leslie totaled 779. That was with Taysom Hill and Christian Stewart at quarterback in Robert Anae's go fast, go hard offense. Leslie was BYU's second leading receiver that year (Mitch Mathews had over 900 yards).

The only scenario I see BYU passing a lot in 2018 is if Tanner Mangum is healthy and returns to his 2015 form. Otherwise, I think Grimes tries to run a conservative ball control offense and lean on the deep, experienced group of running backs. What does that mean for Collie? It will be a challenge to crack 700 yards.

I think he will have the most receiving yards among the wide receivers, but Matt Bushman is going to get a high volume of throws his direction. The Cougar air attack will be more potent than last year, so that will allow Bushman and Collie to both have over 500 yards.

Thank you to everyone who voted. A breakdown of the votes from each polling source is below. Please vote in this week's poll: Who will impress the most at BYU's Pro Day?

 BCF 
 Vote Breakdown 
Twitter 
27% (33)
 0-500
18% (7)
50% (61)
 501-700
66% (25)
 14% (17)
 701-999
 13% (5) 
 9% (11) 
 1,000 yards or more 
3% (1)
 100% (122)
Total 
 100% (38) 

The Editor appreciates all feedback. He can be reached via email at bluecougarfootball@gmail.com

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